Larry Dale and UC Berkeley Participants
Contact: Larry Dale, 510/495-2477, lldale@lbl.gov

Role in the Energy-Water Nexus

In assessing the reliability of water supplies within the context of climate change, the Water and Energy Technology Team (WETT) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is focusing on two sets of questions: (1) What are the social, economic, and environmental effects of increased climatic variability and change on a region, both on specific natural resources and economic sectors, and on the region’s overall economy and society?
(2) What are the costs and benefits of alternative policies that local, state-level, and national governments could initiate to reduce a region’s greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate potentially adverse regional impacts stemming from climate variability and change?

Research Objectives

WETT researchers are addressing questions specific to the effects of climate change on California’s water supply. Our research goals include: (1) measuring the reliability of California’s water supply; (2) estimating the impact of climate changes on that reliability; (3) estimating the value of supply reliability for agricultural, urban, and in-stream users; and (4) evaluating policy options for mitigating adverse effects of climate change on supply reliability.

Approach

We are collecting California water district data and using operations models to measure the current reliability of water supplies. Statistical analysis of these data, as well as district land value data, provides an estimate of the value of supply reliability. We then downscale current output from the Global Climate Model (GCM) output to California river systems to develop input to the operations models, enabling us to identify future impacts of climate change on reliability of water supplies.

Accomplishments

We have assembled a detailed database of California household- and district-level water use. We have used the data to derive loss functions showing the value of supply reliability to urban and agricultural water users. Our initial applications of the operations model have produced rough estimates of climate-induced changes to the reliability of future water supplies.

Significance of Findings

Climate change already is changing the timing of snowpack runoff in California. This study develops an initial estimate of the costs urban and agricultural water users will have to pay because of climate changes. Future work will focus on policy options for minimizing those costs, which likely will be larger than suggested by previous research.

Related Publications

Dale, L.L., Whitehead, C.D., and Fargeix, A., 2004: Electricity Price and Southern California Water Supply Options, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, March.

Schlenker, W., Hanemann, M., and Fisher, T., 2005: The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture―An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions. To be published in American Economic Review.

——— , 2005: The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture―Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach. To be published in Review of Economic Statistics.

——— , 2005: "Nor any drop to drink: climate change and the future of irrigated Agriculture." Berkeley Climate Change Center working paper.

Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the California Energy Commission. The work was performed under U.S. Department of Energy Contract DC-AC03-76SF0098.